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A prognostic model (BATAP) with external validation for patients with transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy
Zhao, P., Wu, Y., He, Y., Chong, S., Qu, Q., Deng, R., Sun, X., Huang, Q. S., Liu, X., Zhu, X., et al
Blood advances. 2021
Abstract
Transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA) is a potentially life-threatening complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Information on markers for early prognostication remains limited, and no predictive tools for TA-TMA are available. We attempt to develop and validate a prognostic model for TA-TMA. A total of 507 patients who developed TA-TMA following allo-HSCT were retrospectively identified and separated into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort according to the time of transplantation to perform external temporal validation. Patient age (OR 2.371, 95% CI 1.264-4.445), anemia (OR 2.836, 95% CI 1.566-5.138), severe thrombocytopenia (OR 3.871, 95% CI 2.156-6.950), elevated total bilirubin (OR 2.716, 95% CI 1.489-4.955) and proteinuria (OR 2.289, 95% CI 1.257-4.168) were identified as independent prognostic factors for the 6-month outcome of TA-TMA. A risk score model termed BATAP (Bilirubin, Age, Thrombocytopenia, Anemia, Proteinuria) was then constructed according to the regression coefficients. The validated c-statistics were 0.816 (95% CI 0.766-0.867) and 0.756 (95% CI 0.696-0.817) in the internal and external validation, respectively. Calibration plots indicated that the model-predicted probabilities correlated well with the actual observed frequencies. This predictive model may facilitate the prognostication of TA-TMA and contribute to the early identification of high-risk patients.