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Haploidentical donor hematopoietic cell transplantation for myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative overlap neoplasms: results from a North American collaboration
Jain, T., Tsai, H. L., Elmariah, H., Vachhani, P., Karantanos, T., Wall, S. A., Gondek, L. P., Bashey, A., Keyzner, A., Tamari, R., et al
Haematologica. 2023
Abstract
Haploidentical donors offer a potentially readily available donor, especially for non-White patients, for hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). In this North American collaboration, we retrospectively analyzed outcomes of first HCT using haploidentical donor and posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy) in MDS/MPN-overlap neoplasms (MDS/MPN). We included 120 consecutive patients who underwent HCT using a haploidentical donor for MDS/MPN across 15 centers. Median age was 62.5 years and 38% were of non-White/Caucasian ethnicity. The median follow-up was 2.4 years. Graft failure was reported in 7/120 (6%) of patients. At 3 years, nonrelapse mortality (NRM) was 25% (95%CI 17-34%), relapse 27% (95%CI 18-36%), grade 3-4 acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) 12% (95%CI 6-18%), chronic GVHD requiring systemic immunosuppression 14% (95%CI 7-20%), progression-free survival (PFS) 48% (95%CI 39-59%), and overall survival (OS) 56% (95%CI 47-67%). On multivariable analysis, NRM was statistically significantly associated with advancing age at HCT (per decade increment, sdHR 3.28, 95%CI 1.30-8.25); relapse with the presence of mutation in EZH2/RUNX1/SETBP1 (sdHR 2.61, 95%CI 1.06-6.44); PFS with advancing age at HCT (per decade increment, HR 1.98, 95% 1.13-3.45); and OS with advancing age at HCT (per decade increment, HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.11-3.63) and splenomegaly at HCT/prior splenectomy (HR 2.20, 95%CI 1.04-4.65). Haploidentical donors are a viable option for HCT in MDS/MPN, especially for those disproportionately represented in the unrelated donor registry. Hence, donor mismatch should not preclude HCT for patients with MDS/MPN, an otherwise incurable malignancy. In addition to patient age, disease-related factors including splenomegaly and high-risk mutations dominate outcomes following HCT.
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Indication and management of allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation in myelofibrosis: updated recommendations by the EBMT/ELN International Working Group
Kröger, N., Bacigalupo, A., Barbui, T., Ditschkowski, M., Gagelmann, N., Griesshammer, M., Gupta, V., Hamad, N., Harrison, C., Hernandez-Boluda, J. C., et al
The Lancet. Haematology. 2023
Abstract
New options for medical therapy and risk scoring systems containing molecular data are leading to increased complexity in the management of patients with myelofibrosis. To inform patients' optimal care, we updated the 2015 guidelines on indications for and management of allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) with the support of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and European LeukemiaNet (ELN). New recommendations were produced using a consensus-building methodology after a comprehensive review of articles released from January, 2015 to December, 2022. Seven domains and 18 key questions were selected through a series of questionnaires using a Delphi process. Key recommendations in this update include: patients with primary myelofibrosis and an intermediate-2 or high-risk Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System score, or a high-risk Mutation-Enhanced International Prognostic Score Systems (MIPSS70 or MIPSS70-plus) score, or a low-risk or intermediate-risk Myelofibrosis Transplant Scoring System score should be considered candidates for allogeneic HSCT. All patients who are candidates for allogeneic HSCT with splenomegaly greater than 5 cm below the left costal margin or splenomegaly-related symptoms should receive a spleen-directed treatment, ideally with a JAK-inhibitor; HLA-matched sibling donors remain the preferred donor source to date. Reduced intensity conditioning and myeloablative conditioning are both valid options for patients with myelofibrosis. Regular post-transplantation driver mutation monitoring is recommended to detect and treat early relapse with donor lymphocyte infusion. In a disease where evidence-based guidance is scarce, these recommendations might help clinicians and patients in shared decision making.
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3.
Alternative donor BMT with post-transplant cyclophosphamide as initial therapy for acquired severe aplastic anemia
DeZern, A., Zahurak, M. L., Symons, H. J., Cooke, K. R., Huff, C. A., Jain, T., Swinnen, L. J., Imus, P. H., Wagner-Johnston, N. D., Ambinder, R. F., et al
Blood. 2023
Abstract
Severe aplastic anemia (SAA) is a marrow failure disorder with high morbidity and mortality. It is treated with bone marrow transplantation (BMT) for those with fully matched donors or immunosuppressive therapy (IST) for those who lack such a donor, which is often the case for underrepresented minorities. We conducted a prospective phase II trial of reduced-intensity conditioning HLA-haplo BMT and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy)-based graft-versus-host (GVHD) prophylaxis as initial therapy for patients with SAA. The median age was 25 (range 3-63) years and the median follow-up was 40.9 months (95% CI: 29.4, 55.7 mos). Over 35% of enrollment was from underrepresented racial/ethnic groups. The cumulative incidence of grade II-IV aGVHD at day 100 is 7% (95% CI: NA, 17%) and chronic GVHD at 2 years is 4% (95% CI: NA, 11%). The overall survival for 27 patients is 92% (95% CI: 83,100%) at one, two, and three years. The first 7 patients received lower dose total body irradiation (200 versus 400 cGY), but these patients were more likely to have graft failure, 3 of 7, compared to 0 out of 20 patients in the higher dose group (p=0.01, Fisher exact). HLA-haploidentical BMT with PTCy using 400cGY total body irradiation resulted in 100% overall survival with minimal GVHD in 20 consecutive patients. Not only does this approach avoid the ramifications of IST and its low failure-free survival, but also the use of haploidentical donors expands access to BMT across all populations. Clinical trial: NCT02833805.
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4.
A Simple Prognostic System in Myelofibrosis Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant: A CIBMTR/EBMT analysis
Tamari, R., McLornan, D. P., Ahn, K. W., Estrada-Merly, N., Hernandez-Boluda, J. C., Giralt, S. A., Palmer, J. M., Gale, R. P., DeFilipp, Z., Marks, D., et al
Blood advances. 2023
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Editor's Choice
Abstract
To develop a prognostic model for patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT) for myelofibrosis (MF). We examined 623 patients undergoing allo-HCT between 2000 - 2016 in the USA (CIBMTR cohort). A Cox multivariable model was used to identify factors prognostic of mortality. A weighted score using these factors was assigned to patients transplanted in Europe (EBMT cohort) (n = 623). Age above 50 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 -1.96), and HLA matched unrelated donor (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.98-1.7) were associated with increased hazard of death and were assigned 1 point. Hemoglobin lower than 100g/L at time of transplant (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.2- 2.19), and a mismatched unrelated donor (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.25- 2.52), were assigned 2 points. The 3-year overall survival (OS) in patients with a low (1-2 points), intermediate (3-4 points) and high score (5 points) were 69% (95% CI, 61% -76 %), 51 % (95% CI, 46% -56.4 %), and 34% (95% CI, 21% - 49%), respectively (P. < 0.001). Increasing score was predictive of increased transplant related mortality (TRM) (P .0017) but not for relapse (P. 0.12). The derived score was predictive for OS (P. < 0.001) and TRM (P. 0.002) but not relapse (P. 17) in the EBMT cohort as well. The proposed system was prognostic of survival in two large cohorts, CIBMTR and EBMT, and can easily be applied by clinicians consulting patients with MF on transplant outcomes.
PICO Summary
Population
Adults aged 40 or over undergoing allogeneic transplantation for myelofibrosis and reported to the CIBMTR or EBMT registries (n=1246)
Intervention
Cox regression model of prognostic factors developed with patients from the CIBMTR registry (n=623)
Comparison
Validation of the model using a cohort from the EBMT registry (n=623)
Outcome
Age above 50 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 -1.96), and HLA matched unrelated donor (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.98-1.7) were associated with increased hazard of death and were assigned 1 point. Hemoglobin lower than 100g/L at time of transplant (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.2- 2.19), and a mismatched unrelated donor (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.25- 2.52), were assigned 2 points. The 3-year overall survival (OS) in patients with a low (1-2 points), intermediate (3-4 points) and high score (5 points) were 69% (95% CI, 61% -76 %), 51 % (95% CI, 46% -56.4 %), and 34% (95% CI, 21% - 49%), respectively. Increasing score was predictive of increased transplant related mortality (TRM) but not for relapse. The derived score was predictive for OS and TRM but not relapse in the EBMT cohort as well.
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5.
Association between the choice of the conditioning regimen and outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for myelofibrosis
Murthy, G. S. G., Kim, S., Estrada-Merly, N., Abid, M. B., Aljurf, M., Assal, A., Badar, T., Badawy, S. M., Ballen, K., Beitinjaneh, A., et al
Haematologica. 2023
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Editor's Choice
Abstract
Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) remains the only curative treatment for myelofibrosis. However, the optimal conditioning regimen either with reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) or myeloablative conditioning (MAC) is not well known. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, we identified adults aged ≥18 years with myelofibrosis undergoing allo-HCT between 2008-2019 and analyzed the outcomes separately in the RIC and MAC cohorts based on the conditioning regimens used. Among 872 eligible patients, 493 underwent allo-HCT using RIC (Fludarabine/busulfan=166, Fludarabine/melphalan=327) and 379 using MAC (Fludarabine/busulfan=247, Busulfan/cyclophosphamide=132). In multivariable analysis with RIC, Fludarabine/melphalan was associated with inferior overall survival (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.15-2.81, p=0.009), higher early non-relapse mortality (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.12-2.91, p=0.01) and higher acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) (grade II-IV- HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03-2.03, p=0.03; grade III-IV HR 2.21, 95%CI 1.28-3.83, p=0.004) compared to Fludarabine/busulfan. In the MAC setting, Busulfan/cyclophosphamide was associated with a higher acute GVHD (grade II-IV HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.67-3.25, p<0.001; grade III-IV HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.52-3.52, p<0.001) and inferior GVHD-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.49-2.53, p<0.001) as compared to Fludarabine/busulfan. Hence, our study suggests that Fludarabine/busulfan is associated with better outcomes in RIC (better overall survival, lower early non-relapse mortality, lower acute GVHD) and MAC (lower acute GVHD and better GRFS) in myelofibrosis.
PICO Summary
Population
Adults with myelofibrosis undergoing allogeneic HSCT between 2008-2019 and reported to the CIBMTR database (n=872)
Intervention
Reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens (n=493): fludarabine/busulfan (n=166) or fludarabine/melphalan (n=327)
Comparison
Myeloablative conditioning (MAC) regimens (n=379): fludarabine/busulfan (n=247) or busulfan/cyclophosphamide (n=132).
Outcome
In multivariable analysis with RIC, fludarabine/melphalan was associated with inferior overall survival (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.15-2.81), higher early non-relapse mortality (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.12-2.91,) and higher acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) (grade II-IV- HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03-2.03; grade III-IV HR 2.21, 95%CI 1.28-3.83) compared to fludarabine/busulfan. In the MAC setting, busulfan/cyclophosphamide was associated with a higher acute GVHD (grade II-IV HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.67-3.25; grade III-IV HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.52-3.52) and inferior GVHD-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.49-2.53) as compared to fludarabine/busulfan.
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6.
Posttransplantation Cyclophosphamide-based Graft versus Host Disease Prophylaxis with Non-myeloablative Conditioning for Blood or Marrow Transplantation for Myelofibrosis
Jain, T., Tsai, H. L., DeZern, A. E., Gondek, L. P., Elmariah, H., Bolaños-Meade, J., Luznik, L., Fuchs, E., Ambinder, R., Gladstone, D. E., et al
Transplantation and cellular therapy. 2022
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Editor's Choice
Abstract
We describe outcomes with posttransplantation cyclophosphamide and non-myeloablative conditioning based allogeneic blood or marrow transplantation for myelofibrosis using matched or mismatched, family or unrelated donors. The conditioning regimen consisted of fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and total body irradiation. Forty-two patients, with a median age of 63 years, were included, of whom 19% had intermediate-1, 60% had intermediate-2, and 21% had high-risk DIPSS-plus disease, and 60% had atleast one high-risk somatic mutation. Over 90% patients engrafted neutrophils at a median of 19.5 days and 7% had graft failure. At 1 and 3-years, respectively, the overall survival was 65% and 60%, relapse-free survival was 65% and 31%, relapse was 5% and 40%, and non-relapse mortality was 30% and 30%. Acute graft versus host disease grade 3-4 was noted in 17% at 1 year and chronic graft versus host disease requiring systemic therapy in 12% patients. Spleen size ≥ 17 cm or prior splenectomy was associated with inferior relapse-free survival (HR 3.50, 95% CI 1.18-10.37, P=0.02) and higher relapse rate (SDHR not calculable, P=0.01). Age > 60 years (SDHR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.80, P=0.02) and peripheral blood graft (SDHR 0.34, 95% CI 0.11-0.99, P=0.05) was associated with lower risk of relapse. In our limited sample, the presence of a high-risk mutation was not statistically significantly associated with an inferior outcome although ASXL1 was suggestive of inferior survival (SDHR 2.36. 95% CI 0.85-6.6, P=0.09). Overall, this approach shows comparable outcomes as previously reported and underscores the importance of spleen size in evaluation of transplant candidates.
PICO Summary
Population
Patients with high-risk Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS)-plus myelofibrosis (n=42)
Intervention
Matched or mismatched allogeneic transplantation with non-myeloablative conditioning, and post-transplant cyclophosphamide
Comparison
None
Outcome
Over 90% patients engrafted neutrophils at a median of 19.5 days and 7% had graft failure. At 1 and 3-years, respectively, the overall survival was 65% and 60%, relapse-free survival was 65% and 31%, relapse was 5% and 40%, and non-relapse mortality was 30% and 30%. Acute graft versus host disease grade 3-4 was noted in 17% at 1 year and chronic graft versus host disease requiring systemic therapy in 12% patients. Spleen size ≥ 17 cm or prior splenectomy was associated with inferior relapse-free survival (HR 3.50, 95% CI 1.18-10.37) and higher relapse rate (SDHR not calculable). Age > 60 years (SDHR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.80) and peripheral blood graft (SDHR 0.34, 95% CI 0.11-0.99) was associated with lower risk of relapse. In our limited sample, the presence of a high-risk mutation was not statistically significantly associated with an inferior outcome although ASXL1 was suggestive of inferior survival (SDHR 2.36. 95% CI 0.85-6.6).
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Allogeneic blood or marrow transplantation with haploidentical donor and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide in patients with myelofibrosis: a multicenter study
Kunte, S., Rybicki, L., Viswabandya, A., Tamari, R., Bashey, A., Keyzner, A., Iqbal, M., Grunwald, M. R., Dholaria, B., Elmariah, H., et al
Leukemia. 2022;36(3):856-864
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Abstract
We report the results from a multicenter retrospective study of 69 adult patients who underwent haploidentical blood or marrow transplantation (haplo-BMT) with post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy) for chronic phase myelofibrosis. The median age at BMT was 63 years (range, 41-74). Conditioning regimens were reduced intensity in 54% and nonmyeloablative in 39%. Peripheral blood grafts were used in 86%. The median follow-up was 23.1 months (range, 1.6-75.7). At 3 years, the overall survival, relapse-free survival (RFS), and graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD)-free-RFS were 72% (95% CI 59-81), 44% (95% CI 29-59), and 30% (95% CI 17-43). Cumulative incidences of non-relapse mortality and relapse were 23% (95% CI 14-34) and 31% (95% CI 17-47) at 3 years. Spleen size ≥22 cm or prior splenectomy (HR 6.37, 95% CI 2.02-20.1, P = 0.002), and bone marrow grafts (HR 4.92, 95% CI 1.68-14.4, P = 0.004) were associated with increased incidence of relapse. Cumulative incidence of acute GVHD grade 3-4 was 10% at 3 months and extensive chronic GVHD was 8%. Neutrophil engraftment was reported in 94% patients, at a median of 20 days (range, 14-70). In conclusion, haplo-BMT with PTCy is feasible in patients with myelofibrosis. Splenomegaly ≥22 cm and bone marrow grafts were associated with a higher incidence of relapse in this study.
Clinical Commentary
Next
What is known?
NIHMS1867052
What did this paper set out to examine?
What did they show?
What are the implications for practice and for future work?
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8.
Fludarabine and Melphalan Compared with Reduced Doses of Busulfan and Fludarabine Improves Transplant Outcomes in Older MDS Patients
Oran, B., Ahn, K. W., Fretham, C., Beitinjaneh, A., Bashey, A., Pawarode, A., Wirk, B., Scott, B. L., Savani, B. N., Bredeson, C., et al
Transplantation and cellular therapy. 2021
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Editor's Choice
Abstract
Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens developed to extend allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) to older patients have resulted in encouraging outcomes. We aimed to compare the two most commonly used RIC regimens, intravenous use of fludarabine with busulfan (FluBu) and fludarabine with melphalan (FluMel), in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Through CIBMTR, we identified 1045 MDS patients aged = 60 years who underwent first HSCT with a matched related or matched (8/8) unrelated donor using RIC. CIBMTR's definition of RIC was used: a regimen that incorporated an intravenous busulfan total dose = 7.2 mg/kg, or a low-dose melphalan total dose of = 150 mg/m(2). The two groups, FluBu (n=697) and FluMel (n=448), were comparable for disease and transplant-related characteristics except for the more frequent use of anti-thymocyte globulin or alemtuzumab in the FluBu group (39% vs. 31%). The median age was 67 in both groups. FluMel was associated with a reduced relapse incidence (RI) compared with FluBu, with a 1-year adjusted incidence of 26% vs. 44% (p=0.0001). Transplant-related mortality (TRM) was higher with FluMel compared with FluBu (26% vs. 16%, p=0.0001). Since the magnitude of improvement with FluMel in RI was greater than the improvement in TRM with FluBu, disease-free survival (DFS) was improved at 1-year and beyond with FluMel compared with FluBu (48% vs. 40% at 1 year, p=0.02, and 35% vs. 27% at 3 years, p=0.01). Overall survival (OS) was comparable at 1 year (63% vs. 61%, p=0.4) but significantly improved with FluMel compared with FluBu at 3 years (46% vs. 39%, p=0.03). Our results suggest that FluMel is associated with superior DFS compared with FluBu due to reduced RI in older MDS patients.
PICO Summary
Population
Patients with myelodysplastic syndrome aged >/=60 years who underwent first HSCT with a matched related or matched (8/8) unrelated donor, and were reported to the CIBMTR registry (n=1045)
Intervention
Reduced intensity regimen incorporating an intravenous busulfan total dose = 7.2 mg/kg (FluBu, n=697)
Comparison
Reduced intensity regimen incorporating a low-dose melphalan total dose of = 150 mg/m(2) (FluMel, n=448)
Outcome
The two groups were comparable for disease and transplant-related characteristics except for the more frequent use of anti-thymocyte globulin or alemtuzumab in the FluBu group (39% vs. 31%). The median age was 67 in both groups. FluMel was associated with a reduced relapse incidence (RI) compared with FluBu, with a 1-year adjusted incidence of 26% vs. 44%. Transplant-related mortality (TRM) was higher with FluMel compared with FluBu (26% vs. 16%). Since the magnitude of improvement with FluMel in RI was greater than the improvement in TRM with FluBu, disease-free survival (DFS) was improved at 1-year and beyond with FluMel compared with FluBu (48% vs. 40% at 1 year, and 35% vs. 27% at 3 years). Overall survival (OS) was comparable at 1 year (63% vs. 61%) but significantly improved with FluMel compared with FluBu at 3 years (46% vs. 39%). Our results suggest that FluMel is associated with superior DFS compared with FluBu due to reduced RI in older MDS patients.
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Early post-transplantation factors predict survival outcomes in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for myelofibrosis
Jain, T., Kunze, K. L., Mountjoy, L., Partain, D. K., Kosiorek, H., Khera, N., Hogan, W. J., Roy, V., Slack, J. L., Noel, P., et al
Blood cancer journal. 2020;10(3):36
Abstract
Factors predicting allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes in myelofibrosis in the early post-HCT period have not been defined thus far. We attempt to study such factors that can help identify patients at a higher risk of relapse or death. This retrospective study included 79 patients who underwent first HCT for myelofibrosis at three centers between 2005 and 2016. Univariate analysis showed that red blood cell (RBC) transfusion dependence (HR 9.02, 95% CI 4.0-20.35), platelet transfusion dependence (HR 8.17, 95%CI 3.83-17.37), 100% donor chimerism in CD33 + cells (HR 0.21, 95%CI 0.07-0.62), unfavorable molecular status (HR 4.41, 95%CI 1.87-10.39), normal spleen size (HR 0.42, 95%CI 0.19-0.94), grade ≥ 2 bone marrow fibrosis (vs. grade ≤ 1; HR 2.7, 95%CI 1.1-6.93) and poor graft function (HR 2.6, 95%CI 1.22-5.53) at day +100 were statistically significantly associated with relapse-free survival (RFS). RBC transfusion dependence and unfavorable molecular status were also statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Patients in whom both of these factors were present had a significantly worse RFS when compared to those with one or none. While limited by a small sample size, we demonstrate the significance of transfusion dependence and molecular status at day +100 in predicting outcomes.
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10.
Survival following allogeneic transplant in patients with myelofibrosis
Gowin, K., Ballen, K., Ahn, K. W., Hu, Z. H., Ali, H., Arcasoy, M. O., Devlin, R., Coakley, M., Gerds, A. T., Green, M., et al
Blood advances. 2020;4(9):1965-1973
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Abstract
Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the only curative therapy for myelofibrosis (MF). In this large multicenter retrospective study, overall survival (OS) in MF patients treated with allogeneic HCT (551 patients) and without HCT (non-HCT) (1377 patients) was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards model. Survival analysis stratified by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) revealed that the first year of treatment arm assignment, due to upfront risk of transplant-related mortality (TRM), HCT was associated with inferior OS compared with non-HCT (non-HCT vs HCT: DIPSS intermediate 1 [Int-1]: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.26, P < .0001; DIPSS-Int-2 and higher: HR, 0.39, P < .0001). Similarly, in the DIPSS low-risk MF group, due to upfront TRM risk, OS was superior with non-HCT therapies compared with HCT in the first-year post treatment arm assignment (HR, 0.16, P = .006). However, after 1 year, OS was not significantly different (HR, 1.38, P = .451). Beyond 1 year of treatment arm assignment, an OS advantage with HCT therapy in Int-1 and higher DIPSS score patients was observed (non-HCT vs HCT: DIPSS-Int-1: HR, 2.64, P < .0001; DIPSS-Int-2 and higher: HR, 2.55, P < .0001). In conclusion, long-term OS advantage with HCT was observed for patients with Int-1 or higher risk MF, but at the cost of early TRM. The magnitude of OS benefit with HCT increased as DIPSS risk score increased and became apparent with longer follow-up.